Maine
The Democrat is projected to receive between 38% and 49% of the vote in Maine. The Republican is projected to receive between 50% and 60%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Maine, the Democrat wins 5% and the Republican wins 95%.
2020 - Senate
Updated July 19, 2020, 107 days from election day 2020.
Who will win control of the Senate?
The Democrats are projected to win between 45 and 58 seats in the Senate. The Republicans are projected to win between 41 and 54 seats in the Senate. In 25000 simulations of the Senate elections from the perspective of July 19, 2020, the Democrats win a majority in 66% and the Republicans win a majority in 34%. (Assuming the two independent senators, neither of whom is up for re-election, continue to caucus with the Democrats).
Who will win each state?
Among the 35 Senate seates available, 9 (26%) are competitive (meaning that the Democrat or Republican is not a shoe-in) as of July 19, 2020. The table below lists the competitive districts arranged by partisan lean.
States
Alabama
The Democrat is projected to receive between 38% and 49% of the vote in Alabama. The Republican is projected to receive between 51% and 61%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Alabama, the Democrat wins 3% and the Republican wins 97%.
Alaska
The Democrat is projected to receive between 29% and 40% of the vote in Alaska. The Republican is projected to receive between 41% and 51%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Alaska, the Democrat wins 5% and the Republican wins 94%.
Arizona
The Democrat is projected to receive between 48% and 58% of the vote in Arizona. The Republican is projected to receive between 42% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Arizona, the Democrat wins 83% and the Republican wins 17%.
Arkansas
The Democrat is projected to receive between 1% and 11% of the vote in Arkansas. The Republican is projected to receive between 61% and 76%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Arkansas, the Democrat wins less than 1% and the Republican wins more than 99%.
Colorado
The Democrat is projected to receive between 51% and 62% of the vote in Colorado. The Republican is projected to receive between 36% and 47%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Colorado, the Democrat wins 98% and the Republican wins 2%.
Delaware
The Democrat is projected to receive between 54% and 70% of the vote in Delaware. The Republican is projected to receive between 29% and 45%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Delaware, the Democrat wins more than 99% and the Republican wins less than 1%.
Georgia
The Democrat is projected to receive between 43% and 53% of the vote in Georgia. The Republican is projected to receive between 45% and 55%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Georgia, the Democrat wins 40% and the Republican wins 60%.
Idaho
The Democrat is projected to receive between 28% and 43% of the vote in Idaho. The Republican is projected to receive between 54% and 69%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Idaho, the Democrat wins less than 1% and the Republican wins more than 99%.
Illinois
The Democrat is projected to receive between 55% and 70% of the vote in Illinois. The Republican is projected to receive between 28% and 43%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Illinois, the Democrat wins more than 99% and the Republican wins less than 1%.
Iowa
The Democrat is projected to receive between 41% and 52% of the vote in Iowa. The Republican is projected to receive between 48% and 58%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Iowa, the Democrat wins 18% and the Republican wins 81%.
Kansas
The Democrat is projected to receive between 36% and 47% of the vote in Kansas. The Republican is projected to receive between 49% and 60%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Kansas, the Democrat wins 3% and the Republican wins 97%.
Kentucky
The Democrat is projected to receive between 41% and 52% of the vote in Kentucky. The Republican is projected to receive between 47% and 57%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Kentucky, the Democrat wins 20% and the Republican wins 79%.
Louisiana
The Democrat is projected to receive between 35% and 51% of the vote in Louisiana. The Republican is projected to receive between 50% and 65%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Louisiana, the Democrat wins 8% and the Republican wins 92%.
Massachusetts
The Democrat is projected to receive between 54% and 70% of the vote in Massachusetts. The Republican is projected to receive between 28% and 43%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Massachusetts, the Democrat wins more than 99% and the Republican wins less than 1%.
Michigan
The Democrat is projected to receive between 48% and 58% of the vote in Michigan. The Republican is projected to receive between 39% and 49%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Michigan, the Democrat wins 92% and the Republican wins 8%.
Minnesota
The Democrat is projected to receive between 51% and 66% of the vote in Minnesota. The Republican is projected to receive between 31% and 46%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Minnesota, the Democrat wins 97% and the Republican wins 3%.
Mississippi
The Democrat is projected to receive between 39% and 50% of the vote in Mississippi. The Republican is projected to receive between 50% and 61%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Mississippi, the Democrat wins 7% and the Republican wins 93%.
Montana
The Democrat is projected to receive between 46% and 57% of the vote in Montana. The Republican is projected to receive between 44% and 54%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Montana, the Democrat wins 66% and the Republican wins 33%.
Nebraska
The Democrat is projected to receive between 33% and 48% of the vote in Nebraska. The Republican is projected to receive between 49% and 65%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Nebraska, the Democrat wins 5% and the Republican wins 95%.
New Hampshire
The Democrat is projected to receive between 52% and 64% of the vote in New Hampshire. The Republican is projected to receive between 36% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Hampshire, the Democrat wins 98% and the Republican wins 2%.
New Jersey
The Democrat is projected to receive between 50% and 63% of the vote in New Jersey. The Republican is projected to receive between 37% and 50%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Jersey, the Democrat wins 93% and the Republican wins 7%.
New Mexico
The Democrat is projected to receive between 49% and 61% of the vote in New Mexico. The Republican is projected to receive between 27% and 39%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Mexico, the Democrat wins more than 99% and the Republican wins less than 1%.
North Carolina
The Democrat is projected to receive between 46% and 56% of the vote in North Carolina. The Republican is projected to receive between 41% and 50%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in North Carolina, the Democrat wins 81% and the Republican wins 19%.
Oklahoma
The Democrat is projected to receive between 23% and 39% of the vote in Oklahoma. The Republican is projected to receive between 58% and 73%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Oklahoma, the Democrat wins less than 1% and the Republican wins more than 99%.
Oregon
The Democrat is projected to receive between 56% and 72% of the vote in Oregon. The Republican is projected to receive between 21% and 37%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Oregon, the Democrat wins more than 99% and the Republican wins less than 1%.
Rhode Island
The Democrat is projected to receive between 55% and 71% of the vote in Rhode Island. The Republican is projected to receive between 30% and 45%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Rhode Island, the Democrat wins more than 99% and the Republican wins less than 1%.
South Carolina
The Democrat is projected to receive between 39% and 50% of the vote in South Carolina. The Republican is projected to receive between 50% and 60%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in South Carolina, the Democrat wins 8% and the Republican wins 92%.
South Dakota
The Democrat is projected to receive between 21% and 37% of the vote in South Dakota. The Republican is projected to receive between 53% and 68%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in South Dakota, the Democrat wins less than 1% and the Republican wins more than 99%.
Tennessee
The Democrat is projected to receive between 39% and 52% of the vote in Tennessee. The Republican is projected to receive between 48% and 61%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Tennessee, the Democrat wins 16% and the Republican wins 84%.
Texas
The Democrat is projected to receive between 37% and 47% of the vote in Texas. The Republican is projected to receive between 43% and 53%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Texas, the Democrat wins 16% and the Republican wins 84%.
Virginia
The Democrat is projected to receive between 51% and 66% of the vote in Virginia. The Republican is projected to receive between 33% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Virginia, the Democrat wins 96% and the Republican wins 4%.
West Virginia
The Democrat is projected to receive between 37% and 52% of the vote in West Virginia. The Republican is projected to receive between 48% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in West Virginia, the Democrat wins 14% and the Republican wins 85%.
Wyoming
The Democrat is projected to receive between 24% and 40% of the vote in Wyoming. The Republican is projected to receive between 59% and 74%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Wyoming, the Democrat wins less than 1% and the Republican wins more than 99%.
